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Thursday, November 14, 2013

Living through the rising Interest Rates & Inflation

The inflation rate in India rose to 7 percent in October 2013, the highest level in last eight months despite efforts by the central bank to rein in prices by hiking interest rates.Government figures released Thursday showed that prices for food were up 18.2 percent, with vegetables leaping by 78.4 percent. Fuel prices were also sharply up in October, rising 10.3 percent.
it is not true any more.

The economy expanded 4.4 percent in the April-June quarter, far below the 8 percent rate the country averaged a few years ago

Most of the Mutual Fund debt schemes are giving low rate of returns and investors face capital erosion. In the last three years, the real estate sector and oil sectors have not performed well. power sector got beaten up with coalgate scam and telecom also had its share.

The changes in inflation in USA is exported to othere nations through the exchange rates. India which went on a rate reduction spree has reverted its course and continues on incresaing repo-reveres repo rates.

The competitive deficit financing resorted to by other Govts are impacting India's Inflation  rates and Interest rates.

During the Inter-war years,   countries resorted to competitive devalautioon and deficit financing which gave birth finally to IMF and World Bank supervised by  European and USA respectively immediately after WW-II. When major problems exist in their economies, they are not going to support developing economies.

The systems and organisations have proved themselves not suffivcient to deal with the new complexities that emerged subsequently.

New Developments on the International scene in view of impending US tapering impacts


Nowadays, nations are entering to SWAPS at central bank level for protecting trade interests.
China's SWAP with Europe, South Korea, Brazil, Australia, etc,. could lead to internationalisation of Chinese renminbi(RMB) there by reducing the supremacy of USD.

The Bank of Japan, U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of england  and the central banks of Canada and Switzerland have made similar arrangements.

Both the Bank of Korea and the Bank Negara Malaysia announced on Sunday 20 the October 2013 that a bilateral agreement that allows the exchange of local currencies of 5 trillion won ($4.7 billion), or 15 billion ringgit, valid for three years, extendable on mutual agreement  was reached.
Both central banks stated the currency swap deal is aimed at encouraging the use of local currencies in bilateral trades while strengthening financial cooperation.

So eventually, India may also join party

The rupee was the worst performing Asian currency between end-May and September 3, 2013 losing close to 30 per cent from the beginning of the fiscal. Between April 2 and Monday,November 11, 2013 the rupee is still down over 16 per cent.

Measures by RBI


  Two special windows for swapping foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits and overseas foreign currency  borrowings by banks, coupled with the one for oil companies under which RBI directly sells dollars to them, apart from the sentiment booster that new Governor Raghuram Rajan offered in his inaugural address, have been the main reasons for the massive recoup of the rupee.

To increase the flow of credit to the export sector to support incremental Pre-shipment export Credit in Foreign Currency (PCFC) by banks, they will now have the option to avail rupee refinance to the extent of the swap with RBI under a special export credit refinance facility. The facility will be available to banks from January 21 till June 28, 2013, for a fixed tenor of three or six months. - See more at: http://www.erewise.com/current-affairs/RBI-introduces-Dollar-Rupee-swap-facility-to-boost-export_3597_art50fa78c14effa.html#.UoTzGMWOxkQ
To increase the flow of credit to the export sector to support incremental Pre-shipment export Credit in Foreign Currency (PCFC) by banks, they will now have the option to avail rupee refinance to the extent of the swap with RBI under a special export credit refinance facility. The facility will be available to banks from January 21 till June 28, 2013, for a fixed tenor of three or six months. - See more at: http://www.erewise.com/current-affairs/RBI-introduces-Dollar-Rupee-swap-facility-to-boost-export_3597_art50fa78c14effa.html#.UoTzGMWOxkQ
To increase the flow of credit to the export sector to support incremental Pre-shipment export Credit in Foreign Currency (PCFC) by banks, they will now have the option to avail rupee refinance to the extent of the swap with RBI under a special export credit refinance facility. The facility will be available to banks from January 21 till June 28, 2013, for a fixed tenor of three or six months. - See more at: http://www.erewise.com/current-affairs/RBI-introduces-Dollar-Rupee-swap-facility-to-boost-export_3597_art50fa78c14effa.html#.UoTzGMWOxkQ
Another window for exporters for funding Incremental Pre-Shipment Credit in Foreign Currency was also introduced.


The Investment World and current Interest rates in India


Behaviour of Interest Rates offered by different banks ranges from 7.75% to 10.10 % ; The rates applicable on post office, PPF, senior citizens scheme and NSC certificates offer an upper band below that of the banks.

The interest rates for NRIs range between 8% to 9.5% with different maturity

The returns from Mutual Funds are historic in nature unlike the above categories. What we have lived through is captured by them.

Planning for investment is, therefore important. Even if one is not a NRI or nothing to do with exorts and imports, is affected by the global events.

The strikes and hartals against inflation is a mental preparation for planning for meeting  the rising expenses as far as the Malayalis are concerned.  So let us plan to remain healthy & wealthy







To increase the flow of credit to the export sector to support incremental Pre-shipment export Credit in Foreign Currency (PCFC) by banks, they will now have the option to avail rupee refinance to the extent of the swap with RBI under a special export credit refinance facility. The facility will be available to banks from January 21 till June 28, 2013, for a fixed tenor of three or six months. - See more at: http://www.erewise.com/current-affairs/RBI-introduces-Dollar-Rupee-swap-facility-to-boost-export_3597_art50fa78c14effa.html#.UoTzGMWOxkQ